0:11
When you're a child, anything and everything is possible. The challenge, so often, is hanging on to that as we grow up. And as a four-year-old, I had the opportunity to sail for the first time.
0:26
I will never forget the excitement as we closed the coast. I will never forget the feeling of adventure as I climbed on board the boat and stared into her tiny cabin for the first time. But the most amazing feeling was the feeling of freedom, the feeling that I felt when we hoisted her sails. As a four-year-old child, it was the greatest sense of freedom that I could ever imagine. I made my mind up there and then that one day, somehow, I was going to sail around the world.
0:59
So I did what I could in my life to get closer to that dream. Age 10, it was saving my school dinner money change. Every single day for eight years, I had mashed potato and baked beans, which cost 4p each, and gravy was free. Every day I would pile up the change on the top of my money box, and when that pile reached a pound, I would drop it in and cross off one of the 100 squares I'd drawn on a piece of paper. Finally, I bought a tiny dinghy. I spent hours sitting on it in the garden dreaming of my goal. I read every book I could on sailing, and then eventually, having been told by my school I wasn't clever enough to be a vet, left school age 17 to begin my apprenticeship in sailing.
1:43
So imagine how it felt just four years later to be sitting in a boardroom in front of someone who I knew could make that dream come true. I felt like my life depended on that moment, and incredibly, he said yes. And I could barely contain my excitement as I sat in that first design meeting designing a boat on which I was going to sail solo nonstop around the world. From that first meeting to the finish line of the race, it was everything I'd ever imagined. Just like in my dreams, there were amazing parts and tough parts. We missed an iceberg by 20 feet. Nine times, I climbed to the top of her 90-foot mast. We were blown on our side in the Southern Ocean. But the sunsets, the wildlife, and the remoteness were absolutely breathtaking. After three months at sea, age just 24, I finished in second position. I'd loved it, so much so that within six months I decided to go around the world again, but this time not in a race: to try to be the fastest person ever to sail solo nonstop around the world. Now for this, I needed a different craft: bigger, wider, faster, more powerful. Just to give that boat some scale, I could climb inside her mast all the way to the top. Seventy-five foot long, 60 foot wide. I affectionately called her Moby. She was a multihull. When we built her, no one had ever made it solo nonstop around the world in one, though many had tried, but whilst we built her, a Frenchman took a boat 25 percent bigger than her and not only did he make it, but he took the record from 93 days right down to 72. The bar was now much, much higher.
3:31
And these boats were exciting to sail. This was a training sail off the French coast. This I know well because I was one of the five crew members on board. Five seconds is all it took from everything being fine to our world going black as the windows were thrust underwater, and that five seconds goes quickly. Just see how far below those guys the sea is. Imagine that alone in the Southern Ocean plunged into icy water, thousands of miles away from land.
4:02
It was Christmas Day. I was forging into the Southern Ocean underneath Australia. The conditions were horrendous. I was approaching a part in the ocean which was 2,000 miles away from the nearest town. The nearest land was Antarctica, and the nearest people would be those manning the European Space Station above me. (Laughter) You really are in the middle of nowhere. If you need help, and you're still alive, it takes four days for a ship to get to you and then four days for that ship to get you back to port. No helicopter can reach you out there, and no plane can land. We are forging ahead of a huge storm. Within it, there was 80 knots of wind, which was far too much wind for the boat and I to cope with. The waves were already 40 to 50 feet high, and the spray from the breaking crests was blown horizontally like snow in a blizzard. If we didn't sail fast enough, we'd be engulfed by that storm, and either capsized or smashed to pieces. We were quite literally hanging on for our lives and doing so on a knife edge.
5:10
The speed I so desperately needed brought with it danger. We all know what it's like driving a car 20 miles an hour, 30, 40. It's not too stressful. We can concentrate. We can turn on the radio. Take that 50, 60, 70, accelerate through to 80, 90, 100 miles an hour. Now you have white knuckles and you're gripping the steering wheel. Now take that car off road at night and remove the windscreen wipers, the windscreen, the headlights and the brakes. That's what it's like in the Southern Ocean. (Laughter) (Applause) You could imagine it would be quite difficult to sleep in that situation, even as a passenger. But you're not a passenger. You're alone on a boat you can barely stand up in, and you have to make every single decision on board. I was absolutely exhausted, physically and mentally. Eight sail changes in 12 hours. The mainsail weighed three times my body weight, and after each change, I would collapse on the floor soaked with sweat with this freezing Southern Ocean air burning the back of my throat.
6:12
But out there, those lowest of the lows are so often contrasted with the highest of the highs. A few days later, we came out of the back of the low. Against all odds, we'd been able to drive ahead of the record within that depression. The sky cleared, the rain stopped, and our heartbeat, the monstrous seas around us were transformed into the most beautiful moonlit mountains.
6:39
It's hard to explain, but you enter a different mode when you head out there. Your boat is your entire world, and what you take with you when you leave is all you have. If I said to you all now, "Go off into Vancouver and find everything you will need for your survival for the next three months," that's quite a task. That's food, fuel, clothes, even toilet roll and toothpaste. That's what we do, and when we leave we manage it down to the last drop of diesel and the last packet of food. No experience in my life could have given me a better understanding of the definition of the word "finite." What we have out there is all we have. There is no more.
7:18
And never in my life had I ever translated that definition of finite that I'd felt on board to anything outside of sailing until I stepped off the boat at the finish line having broken that record.
7:29
(Applause)
7:35
Suddenly I connected the dots. Our global economy is no different. It's entirely dependent on finite materials we only have once in the history of humanity. And it was a bit like seeing something you weren't expecting under a stone and having two choices: I either put that stone to one side and learn more about it, or I put that stone back and I carry on with my dream job of sailing around the world.
8:01
I chose the first. I put it to one side and I began a new journey of learning, speaking to chief executives, experts, scientists, economists to try to understand just how our global economy works. And my curiosity took me to some extraordinary places.
8:17
This photo was taken in the burner of a coal-fired power station. I was fascinated by coal, fundamental to our global energy needs, but also very close to my family. My great-grandfather was a coal miner, and he spent 50 years of his life underground. This is a photo of him, and when you see that photo, you see someone from another era. No one wears trousers with a waistband quite that high in this day and age. (Laughter) But yet, that's me with my great-grandfather, and by the way, they are not his real ears. (Laughter)
8:52
We were close. I remember sitting on his knee listening to his mining stories. He talked of the camaraderie underground, and the fact that the miners used to save the crusts of their sandwiches to give to the ponies they worked with underground. It was like it was yesterday. And on my journey of learning, I went to the World Coal Association website, and there in the middle of the homepage, it said, "We have about 118 years of coal left." And I thought to myself, well, that's well outside my lifetime, and a much greater figure than the predictions for oil. But I did the math, and I realized that my great-grandfather had been born exactly 118 years before that year, and I sat on his knee until I was 11 years old, and I realized it's nothing in time, nor in history. And it made me make a decision I never thought I would make: to leave the sport of solo sailing behind me and focus on the greatest challenge I'd ever come across: the future of our global economy.
9:48
And I quickly realized it wasn't just about energy. It was also materials. In 2008, I picked up a scientific study looking at how many years we have of valuable materials to extract from the ground: copper, 61; tin, zinc, 40; silver, 29. These figures couldn't be exact, but we knew those materials were finite. We only have them once. And yet, our speed that we've used these materials has increased rapidly, exponentially. With more people in the world with more stuff, we've effectively seen 100 years of price declines in those basic commodities erased in just 10 years. And this affects all of us. It's brought huge volatility in prices, so much so that in 2011, your average European car manufacturer saw a raw material price increase of 500 million Euros, wiping away half their operating profits through something they have absolutely no control over.
10:44
And the more I learned, the more I started to change my own life. I started traveling less, doing less, using less. It felt like actually doing less was what we had to do. But it sat uneasy with me. It didn't feel right. It felt like we were buying ourselves time. We were eking things out a bit longer. Even if everybody changed, it wouldn't solve the problem. It wouldn't fix the system. It was vital in the transition, but what fascinated me was, in the transition to what? What could actually work?
11:13
It struck me that the system itself, the framework within which we live, is fundamentally flawed, and I realized ultimately that our operating system, the way our economy functions, the way our economy's been built, is a system in itself. At sea, I had to understand complex systems. I had to take multiple inputs, I had to process them, and I had to understand the system to win. I had to make sense of it. And as I looked at our global economy, I realized it too is that system, but it's a system that effectively can't run in the long term.
11:49
And I realized we've been perfecting what's effectively a linear economy for 150 years, where we take a material out of the ground, we make something out of it, and then ultimately that product gets thrown away, and yes, we do recycle some of it, but more an attempt to get out what we can at the end, not by design. It's an economy that fundamentally can't run in the long term, and if we know that we have finite materials, why would we build an economy that would effectively use things up, that would create waste? Life itself has existed for billions of years and has continually adapted to use materials effectively. It's a complex system, but within it, there is no waste. Everything is metabolized. It's not a linear economy at all, but circular.
12:36
And I felt like the child in the garden. For the first time on this new journey, I could see exactly where we were headed. If we could build an economy that would use things rather than use them up, we could build a future that really could work in the long term. I was excited. This was something to work towards. We knew exactly where we were headed. We just had to work out how to get there, and it was exactly with this in mind that we created the Ellen MacArthur Foundation in September 2010.
13:06
Many schools of thought fed our thinking and pointed to this model: industrial symbiosis, performance economy, sharing economy, biomimicry, and of course, cradle-to-cradle design. Materials would be defined as either technical or biological, waste would be designed out entirely, and we would have a system that could function absolutely in the long term.
13:29
So what could this economy look like? Maybe we wouldn't buy light fittings, but we'd pay for the service of light, and the manufacturers would recover the materials and change the light fittings when we had more efficient products. What if packaging was so nontoxic it could dissolve in water and we could ultimately drink it? It would never become waste. What if engines were re-manufacturable, and we could recover the component materials and significantly reduce energy demand. What if we could recover components from circuit boards, reutilize them, and then fundamentally recover the materials within them through a second stage? What if we could collect food waste, human waste? What if we could turn that into fertilizer, heat, energy, ultimately reconnecting nutrients systems and rebuilding natural capital? And cars -- what we want is to move around. We don't need to own the materials within them. Could cars become a service and provide us with mobility in the future? All of this sounds amazing, but these aren't just ideas, they're real today, and these lie at the forefront of the circular economy. What lies before us is to expand them and scale them up.
14:35
So how would you shift from linear to circular? Well, the team and I at the foundation thought you might want to work with the top universities in the world, with leading businesses within the world, with the biggest convening platforms in the world, and with governments. We thought you might want to work with the best analysts and ask them the question, "Can the circular economy decouple growth from resource constraints? Is the circular economy able to rebuild natural capital? Could the circular economy replace current chemical fertilizer use?" Yes was the answer to the decoupling, but also yes, we could replace current fertilizer use by a staggering 2.7 times. But what inspired me most about the circular economy was its ability to inspire young people. When young people see the economy through a circular lens, they see brand new opportunities on exactly the same horizon. They can use their creativity and knowledge to rebuild the entire system, and it's there for the taking right now, and the faster we do this, the better.
15:37
So could we achieve this in their lifetimes? Is it actually possible? I believe yes. When you look at the lifetime of my great-grandfather, anything's possible. When he was born, there were only 25 cars in the world; they had only just been invented. When he was 14, we flew for the first time in history. Now there are 100,000 charter flights every single day. When he was 45, we built the first computer. Many said it wouldn't catch on, but it did, and just 20 years later we turned it into a microchip of which there will be thousands in this room here today. Ten years before he died, we built the first mobile phone. It wasn't that mobile, to be fair, but now it really is, and as my great-grandfather left this Earth, the Internet arrived. Now we can do anything, but more importantly, now we have a plan.
16:32
Thank you.
16:35
(Applause)
0:11
如果你還小， 凡事都有無限可能。 但是隨著我們的成長， 挑戰也隨之而來。 我 4 歲時， 第一次有機會航行。
0:26
我忘不了第一次靠岸的興奮。 我也忘不了， 第一次登上甲板， 盯著小船艙時的熱血沸騰。 但最強烈的感受是自由， 尤其揚帆時的感受。 身為一個才 4 歲的孩子， 我能夠想像到最大的自由之感。 我當時下定決心， 要駕船環遊世界。
0:59
我努力實現這個夢想。 10 歲時，我開始省學校的午餐錢。 8 年來，午餐只吃薯泥和焗豆， 每樣只要 4 鎊，還附免費肉汁。 我每天把省下來的錢 放在存錢罐的頂部， 每集滿一鎊時，就放進存錢罐裡， 然後劃掉我自己畫的 100 個格子中的ㄧ格。 最後我買了一艘小船。 花幾小時，坐在院子裡的船， 想像我在環遊世界。 我讀了我能夠獲得的所有航海書， 最後，學校也跟我說， 我太笨了當不上獸醫， 我 17 歲畢業後，就去拜師學航海。
1:43
想像一下 4 年後， 我坐在會議室， 面對可以幫我實現夢想的人。 我想，這輩子就取決於那一刻， 不可思議的是，他答應了。 在首次的設計會議上我非常興奮， 設計我要駕駛的船， 獨自不間斷繞世界一周。 從首次會議到比賽結束， 就像我想的那樣。 但就如我預期， 有困難也有精彩的地方， 途中，我曾和冰山擦身而過； 9 次爬上 90 尺高的桅； 在南極海還一度快被吹倒。 但夕陽落日、野生動物、杳無人煙， 這些都讓我驚嘆不已。 航行了 3 個月，當時我 24 歲， 我獲得第二名。 我很享受過程，以致 6 個月內， 我決定再次踏上環遊世界的旅程， 但這次不是比賽。 我想挑戰獨自不間斷 繞行地球的紀錄。 為此，我需要一艘新船： 更大、更寬、更快、更有力。 只要把船做得大一點， 它的桅要能讓我向上攀爬到頂部。 長 75 英尺，寬 60 英尺。 我把它暱稱為「摩比」。 她是艘「多體船」。 當我們建造它的時候， 沒有人能夠不停靠 獨自環航世界， 雖然很多人試過了， 但我們在造它的同時 一名法國人以比她大 25% 的船， 他不只成功了，還把紀錄 從 93 天減少到 72 天。 門檻越來越高。
3:31
我的船也迫不急待要出航。 這是在法國外海的訓練。 我很了解這艘船， 因為我是船上 5 個船員之一。 5 秒鐘前進展顺利， 之後，一個大浪打過來， 船就翻了， 那五秒很快，完全來不及反應。 你看，我們在水下有多深。 想像一下，獨自一人在南極海， 陷入冰冷的海水， 離陸地有千里之遙。
4:02
那天是聖誕節， 我航行到澳洲下方的南極海。 天氣情況很惡劣。 我在某片海域航行， 最近的城鎮離我 2000 英里。 最近的陸地是南極洲， 距離我最近的人是 歐洲太空站的宇航員。 (笑聲) 真的是孤立無援。 如果你需要幫助， 而且還活著的話， 一艘船要 4 天才能到達這個位置， 再花 4 天才能送你回到港口。 直升機到不了這裡， 飛機也無法降落。 在巨大的風暴中前行。 這裡的風速有 80 節， 我跟船都無法承受。 浪已經有 40 到 50 英尺高， 濺起來的浪花， 像暴風雪迎面打來。 但如果不開快點， 我們就會被風暴捲走， 不是翻船就是解體。 我們幾乎是把命 掛在刀口上。 但高速航行同時也很危險。 都知道，就像開車， 時速二三十或四十英里， 不是很緊張，可以很專心， 也可以一邊聽音樂。 如果加速到五、六十甚至到一百， 你會緊抓方向盤而且指節發白。 想像一下，晚上以這個車速， 沒有雨刷和擋風玻璃、 車頭燈和煞車。 這就我在南極海的情況。 (笑聲)(掌聲) 你能想像， 這種情況下怎麼能睡得著， 就算只是乘客。 況且你不是乘客， 你是孤伶伶的駕駛， 而且站都站不穩， 還要做出每個決定。 我身心俱疲。 12 個小時內換了 8 張帆。 主帆是我體重的 3 倍， 而且每換一次， 我就會滿身大汗倒在甲板上， 南極海的冰冷空氣侵蝕我的喉嚨。
6:12
但俗話說烏雲背後有陽光、 大難不死必有後福。 幾天後，我們總算苦盡甘來， 出乎意料的，儘管情緒低落， 我們還是刷新了紀錄。 天晴了，雨也停了， 本來急促的心跳和周圍像猛獸的海， 都變成月光撒落的靜謐山巒。
6:39
很難形容，但你知道 進入了不同的境界。 這艘船就是你的世界， 離開時所帶的東西 就是你的全部家當。 如果我現在說：「去溫哥華， 購買出海 3 個月會用到的所有物品。」 那也不是個小工程， 食物、燃油、衣服， 甚至衛生紙、牙膏。 我們全部買好， 出發後開始精打細算。 從每一滴柴油到每一份食物。 這輩子沒有其他時候， 能更讓我體會到 「資源有限」的含義。 我們帶了多少就是多少， 不會有更多了。 我也沒想到我會把這種體悟， 運用到我航海之外的生活， 直到我踏上岸，破了紀錄的那一刻。
7:29
(掌聲)
7:35
我恍然大悟， 全球經濟不也是如此嗎？ 它完全倚仗在人類史上， 可能只能使用一次的有限資源。 這就像從石頭底下發現了新玩意， 你有兩個選擇： 要不是把石頭搬開， 然後開始研究， 或者把石頭堆回去， 然後繼續我繞行全球的夢想。
8:01
我選了前者。 我把石頭搬開，開始了新的學習。 去拜訪官員、專家、 科學家、經濟學家， 試著了解全球經濟體系。 我的好奇心開拓了一個新視野。
8:17
這張照片是一座火力發電廠， 我對煤很感興趣， 它是能源的基礎， 同時跟我很有淵源。 我的曾祖父是礦工， 他在地底賣力了 50 年。 這是他的照片，看著這張照片， 你能看到時代的痕跡。 現在已經沒人把鬆緊帶的褲子， 穿這麼高了。(笑聲) 這是我和我的曾祖父， 順帶一提，那不是真的耳朵。 (笑聲)
8:52
我們很親近。我會坐在他腿上 聽他的礦工故事。 他會說那些地下的同袍之誼， 他們會把三明治的吐司邊留下， 餵給礦坑拉車的小馬。 就像昨天才發生。 在我的學習過程中， 我曾上世界煤礦協會的網站， 在首頁的中間寫著： 「煤礦存量可供 118 年使用。」 我還想，至少有生之年用不完， 而且比石油存量多多了。 但我一算，發現我曾祖父， 正是網站所說的 118 年前出生。 我坐在他的膝上直到 11 歲， 我發現那其實很短， 無論就時間或歷史來說。 這讓我下了一個意想不到的決定： 不再從事單人航海的運動， 更專注在我從未遇過的大挑戰： 全球經濟的未來。
9:48
我很快發現不只是能源， 原料也岌岌可危。 2008 年，我看了一篇科學研究， 想知道我們還有多少年， 可以從地下獲取珍貴資源。 銅 61 年；錫、鋅 40 年； 銀 29 年。 這些數字未必精確， 但至少確定有用完的一天。 我們只能用一次。 但我們消耗的速度卻快速增加， 呈指數成長。 地球上有越多人、越多需求， 100 年來， 我們親眼目睹使用期限 只有 10 年的生活必需品不斷降價。 這影響我們每個人， 也帶來了價格的巨大浮動。 影響之大，在 2011年， 歐洲的汽車製造商都發現， 原物料的價格漲了 5 億歐元。 吃掉了他們一半的利潤， 而且他們無能為力。
10:44
當了解越多，我的生活也開始發生改變。 我開始少旅遊、少做、少消耗。 我發現我們該做的就是「少做」。 但這很難做到， 覺得哪裡怪怪的。 好像我們只是在拖延時間， 只是讓資源可以用久一點。 就算大家改變習慣，問題還是沒解決。 整個大環境還是一樣。 轉型很重要，但我在想的是， 要轉型成怎樣？怎樣才能解決問題？
11:13
我想到這個系統本身， 我們存在的這個架構， 本質是有缺陷的。 所以我最後明白， 整個經濟的運作模式， 「經濟」被建構成一個「系統」。 在海上，我必須了解複雜的系統。 有很多輸入， 我去處理它們， 我要更了解系統才能贏， 我必須去理解。 所以我發現全球經濟也是個系統， 卻不是個可以長久運作的系統。
11:49
在過去 150 年，我們已經 把「線性經濟」發揮到極致： 從地表下取出資源， 做出點產品，然後最後用完了， 產品就被丟棄。 我們的確實有在回收， 但到最後只想試圖擺脫， 而不是有計畫再利用什麼。 這種設計本來就不為了長久。 如果我們知道資源有限， 為什麼要用一個不斷丟棄， 然後會造成浪費的系統？ 生命已經存在數十億年之久， 不斷試著去有效運用資源。 聽起來複雜， 但這樣就沒有所謂「垃圾」， 每個產物被代謝掉了。 不是「線性經濟」，而是「循環經濟」。
12:36
我就像當年坐在院子裡， 初次踏上新旅程， 我可以預見我們的發展。 如果經濟是「用」但不「用完」， 我們的未來就可以持續下去。 我好興奮。 這是值得努力的目標。 我們有目標， 只是要想怎麼達成， 也就是這樣的想法， 我們在 2010 年 9 月， 創辦了艾倫麥克阿瑟基金會。
13:06
很多學派接受我們的論點， 並結合工業共棲、效益經濟、 共享經濟、生物擬態， 當然，還有「搖籃到搖籃」的設計。 物質被分為技術性或生物性， 把浪費排除在設計之外， 我們就可以有一個系統， 長久地運轉下去。
13:29
所以這種經濟會是怎樣呢？ 可能我們不買燈具， 但我們買「燈光」的服務， 廠商就負責管理回收這些材料， 如果有更環保的燈具， 就由他們更換。 或是無毒、可被水分解的包裝， 最後可以喝掉，就沒有空瓶垃圾。 或是組裝式的引擎， 我們可以替換裡面的零件， 有效減少能源消耗。 如果可以替換、再利用電路板零件， 然後經過第二階段， 改變使用的素材。 或著回收廚餘、排泄物， 然後轉換成肥料、熱、能量， 甚至重新建立養分的循環， 恢復我們的自然資源。 如果車子只是移動的手段， 我們不需要每個人都有車， 未來可能以服務的形式， 購買「移動」這項產品。 乍聽之下很神奇， 但這都是真實存在。 這就是「循環經濟」的核心。 我們要做的是去擴充、升級。
14:35
要怎麼從線性變成循環經濟呢？ 我們基金會的團隊就想， 要和世界一流的院校合作、 和世界知名的企業合作、 與世界最大的智庫平台合作、 還有各國政府。 你可能想和專家共事，問他們： 你可能想和專家共事，問他們： 「循環經濟可以讓經濟成長， 不再受制於有限資源嗎？」 「循環經濟可以重建自然資本嗎？」 「「循環經濟可以取代化肥使用嗎？」 答案：是的， 而且我們還可以取代現代化肥， 化肥使用也可以減少 2.7 倍。 但循環經濟最讓我訝異的， 是對年輕人的啟發。 當他們從這樣的角度看經濟， 他們在相同的議題上看見了新可能。 他們用創意和知識， 重建了整個系統。 這就是大家該努力的目標， 而且越早行動越好。
15:37
在他們有生之年可能完成嗎？ 這真的可行嗎？ 我的答案是肯定的。 在我曾祖父的年代，凡事都有可能。 他出生的時候全世界只有 25 輛車， 車才剛被發明。 他 14 歲時， 人類第一次翱翔天際。 現在每天 有 10 萬架航班起降。 他 45 歲，人類有了第一台電腦。 當時很多人都不看好， 但在短短 20 年 我們把它變成薄薄的晶片， 相信在場就有上千片的晶片。 他死前 10 年， 人類有了第一支行動電話， 雖然剛開始很笨重， 但現在太方便了。 在他過世那年，有了網路。 現在我們無所不能， 更重要的是， 我們也有了計畫。
16:32
謝謝！
16:35
(掌聲)
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